*Misc Gurus 7-5-13 updated*

[Vixen]

7-5-2013 *Enorrste ~ANYONE who claims that there will be an RV in the very near future, is crazy. The CBI stated yesterday that the "project to remove the three zeros" is being postponed indefinitely. This means that they CANNOT RV at $3.44 this week! Why? Because they won't have any small notes to use for commercial activity. The large notes will begin to be removed AT THE EARLIEST on January 1, 2014, at which time Parliament has stated they would release the new currency (small denom notes). What IS possible is that the CBI will announce a FREE FLOAT, and they can make that announcement at any time. Anyone who talks about an RV (either $1 or $3.44, or more) is clearly WRONG...The CBI should be your first and primary source. They stated yesterday that the removal of the large notes is postponed indefinitely. That means NO RV. If they DID RV, then they would have to remove the large notes, since each note would be worth $25,000 to $80,000! Therefore, wait for an announcement of a change in the "exchange rate regime" from a fixed rate (1166 to 1) to a FREE FLOAT. That announcement can come at any time and will have to occur soon, in our opinion, since we expect the rate to be $1 by January 1, 2014.

7-5-2013 *TerryK ~[We still expecting rv anytime?] WE ARE. THE Q CARDS WILL BE FUNDED THRU THE HCL ONCE THEY ESTABLISH A RATE THRU THE RV. THE HCL IS SUPPORTED BY THE OIL RESERVES FUNDING WHICH IS THE SUPPORT FOR THE CARDS.

7-5-2013 *TD ~Well I was going to post about yesterday's CBI article but ENORRSTE I see took the EXACT words out of my mouth. My GOI contact confirmed EXACTLY THIS (what Enorrste wrote today) last night. On the bright side a plan BEING SUBMITTED to the IMF of a float is under way which would allow us an opportunity to move quicker and closure on this investment.

7-5-2013 *TERRYK ~THERE WAS A SMALL ISSUE LAST NIGHT…WHERE 3 COUNTRIES CODES WERE NOT RIGHT…I KNOW SOUNDS STUPID…BUT ANYWAY THIS WAS TAKEN CARE OF FIRST THING THIS MORNING… SO THEY CLAIM THEY ARE BACK ON TRACK…AND WE MAY VERY WELL BE AT THE BANK MONDAY MORNING…I'M SURE GETTING TIRED OF THIS WEEKEND C*** AND BACK TO THE BANK ON MONDAY…IS IT ME OR ARE THE FRICKIN DAYS JUST FLYING OFF OF THE CALANDAR

7-5-2013 *Doc ~We find ourselves entering the Ramadan period with no clear picture of timing for currency reform. In fact a recent CBI announcement suggested the new bills would not be out until end-of-year. It was pretty clear up until about a year ago the plan was to RV at $1. The Special Inspector General's report and even Iraq's 5 year plan made reference to this in plain black and white print. Recently however the tone has changed to language like natural exchange regime and even hints this would occur over a period of time. Looking at this carefully it would indicate a progression toward $1 and not a step change. Some call it a float whether managed or free. What we find encouraging is the plan continues to be to raise the value.With this we seriously doubt everyone will wake up to a massive increase overnight based on the body of articles recently released. As we have documented in the past this is not in the best economic interest of Iraq. The question remain as to when will currency reform start no matter what it looks like. The answer is no one knows for sure. Our opinion is Ramadan will continue to be a time of no significant announcement. However, plans/details will continue to be worked out and progression on currency reform will be forthcoming. We will continue to look for HCl passagfe as a key milestone. We report, you decide.