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11-14-2015 *Kaperoni

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11-14-2015 *Kaperoni

Unread postby Vixen » Sat Nov 14, 2015 11:57 am

11-13-2015 *Kaperoni ~Article: "Parliamentary Finance: the issuance of Class 50 000 will enhance the purchasing power of our currency" ...the hope is that that dinar comes out of shoeboxes and pillows and begins to be used on a more regular basis and less on the dollar. Obviously, the CBI wants to hold on to dollars and they are hoping this puts less demand on the auctions as well as consolidate the physical paper in circulation. As for our dinar, we do nothing. No need to try and get these or worry that our notes are ending or anything like that. Until the exchange rate begins to rise, this has no effect on us. ...the CBI stated once the "delete zeros" program starts, they will accept the larger 3 zeros notes for up to 10 years...(of course they could always change that). Relax all. We have months yet to go until the CBI is ready to exit the peg and float...But they are now on the "clock" sort of speak as this note is part of the procedure to restructure the currency.

11-13-2015 *Kaperoni ~Article quote: “many long term investors in emerging market currencies, for example, have been able to benefit from the appreciation of those currencies which is arguably due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect.” In other words, this reference to the “Balassa-Samuelson effect” hypothesis which in essence is described as “a rapidly expanding economy creates a rapidly appreciating exchange rate” will give us an opportunity to benefit from that appreciation. That can only mean free float. The word “rapid” only make sense in a free float. It also means the IMF knows and endorses the plan. It also means that the dinar we hold is legitimate and was sold with an intended purpose. So there u go...the dinar will rise and we will profit from it.

11-14-2015 *Kaperoni ~the zeros (3 zero notes) cannot go away until the dinar has appreciated to a value that lets the CBI collect and destroy them. It does not mean they won't start to raise the value within the next few months as we predict. That being said, the CBI was clear, the 50, 100, 200 is expected to come out early or starting 2017. That would put the rate at or about .05 cents or so. ..which is what we expect. It may take 16 to 24 months to raise the value to a 1 to $1 rate in which the zeros are then "technically" deleted. I think everyone here expects the float to begin during the 1st half of 2016 which matches with the IMF statement and the goals for 2017. So in reality, if parliament passes the laws, investors begin to flock into Iraq, and the CBI (with the help of the IMF) gets monetary policy under control, the 50K note works to reduce the paper, and the decision is made to exit the peg to a float by mid 2016, the nominal rate could be less or more than that educated calculation (we think about 5 cents). Lot's of "ifs" here so we wait and see how it plays out.
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